Macrobias turns the same macro inputs a desk analyst watches into one clear directional score per pair. Here's exactly what goes in, and how to read what comes out.
Each currency is profiled across the factors that actually move exchange rates. For any pair, we compare the base currency against the quote on every one.
The current policy rate set by each central bank. A higher-yielding currency tends to attract flows — the single biggest structural driver.
Where policy is heading next — hiking, holding or cutting. Markets price the direction of rates as much as the level.
The gap between 10-year government yields. Widening differentials pull capital toward the higher-yielding currency.
How recent economic releases — inflation, jobs, growth — are landing versus expectations, and which currency they favour.
Net speculative positioning from the COT report — how the large players are already leaning, and how stretched that is.
The market's risk-on / risk-off mood, which lifts pro-cyclical currencies (AUD, NZD) or havens (JPY, CHF, USD) accordingly.
The drivers aren't treated equally — each is weighted by how reliably it moves price, then blended into a single number for the pair. (The exact weights are proprietary, but the priority order is below.)
No single factor can dominate — each driver's influence is capped before weighting, so one extreme reading can't hijack the whole score. The weighted contributions are summed: a net positive favours the base currency, negative favours the quote.
Every pair shows three things. Here's what each one means.
A single number, roughly −66 to +66. The further from zero, the stronger the fundamental tilt. Positive = base favoured, negative = quote favoured.
Bullish, Bearish or Neutral. Scores close to zero are called Neutral on purpose — a small tilt isn't a tradable edge, so we don't dress it up as one.
How much of the picture agrees. High = nearly all drivers point the same way; low = they're split and the call is finely balanced.
On each pair's detail view, every driver gets a ✓ if it backs the overall call, ✗ if it argues against it, or – if it's negligible. It's the fastest way to see why a pair scores the way it does — and where the disagreement is.
Macrobias is the direction half of your trade — it is not a signal to buy or sell on its own. Use the bias to know which way the macro wind is blowing, then take your entry from your own technical setup. Your highest-conviction trades are the ones where your chart and the Macrobias bias point the same way.
Macrobias bias scores are an analytical aid, not financial advice or a recommendation to enter any position. Fundamental inputs are currently illustrative for demonstration; live data integration is in progress. Always do your own analysis and manage risk. Markets can move against even a strong fundamental bias, particularly around high-impact news.